When is a good start a good start and a Quick Hit

Posted: 10/21/2011 by bc in Uncategorized
Tags: , , , ,

Mainstream media and the blogosphere  is shouting in one voice that our Ducks are off to the second greatest start in team history. Big whoop. We’re talkin’ five games here. After a forgettable first game our Ducks have put together a four game winning streak.

In the glass half full, you can pour in stellar goaltending from Hiller & Ellis, two goals apiece from Perry, Selanne and Ryan, a 88% PK efficiency rate and the PIMS, especially the stupid penalties are down from recent years. Though everyone who saw Monday’s game against the Sharks know full well that stupid calls are occurring at about the same rate as ever.

In a glass half empty, 60% of our scoring is coming from 3 players, the only D-man to find the back of the net this season, Nate Guenin, is now Syracuse, the depth lines have produced just two goals, our FO% is just 44.7 and the PP is operating at 10% efficiency.

Our Ducks will be severely challenged to break even, let alone make the playoffs with a 2.00 GFA. That projects to 164 goals on the season.

This is exactly why five games is not a great start. It’s a winning streak. Let’s talk about the start at the quarter pole or after 20 games. The only things I see that  could be consistent is the PK. Hiller & Ellis are a great tandem but no way do I expect them to produce GAA under 2.00 over the course of an entire season.

As Coach Carlyle told OCR’s Jeff Miller, “Everything is, I wouldn’t say rosy, I would just say there’s a lighter feeling around when you’re having success. We know that it can change in one game. It can change in one period. So you better be ready to give whatever you’ve got.”

While mainstream media and the rest of the blogosphere can drink the great start Kool-Aid, I prefer to save such a notion for the 20 game or quarter pole review.

Francois Beauchemin and Ryan Getzlaf are tied for the team lead in giveaways at 5 apiece. I’m beginning to wonder if we shouldn’t just categorize these guys as “high risk, high reward” players? Getzy’s commitment to conditioning is exemplary but maybe he should include some brain teasers or crossword puzzles in the mix. Francois (((DOH))) Beauchemin just gets stuck on stupid out there. I don’t mean this in a bad way. It’s just a fact. Usually such generosity is the result of missing reads, a failure to see the ice or that pesky vision thing.

In the St. Louis game, Berglund’s goal came off a Beauchemin giveaway. I can’t think of any others right off but this is an area in serious need of improvement. It really focuses on two guys.

Quick hit: Brandon McMillan won first shot at replacing the injured Jason Blake. Coach Carlyle has set the terms of the sophomore’s promotion, “He has to produce.” For Brandon to be successful alongside the Finn Twins he has to set up as the third man high and be prepared to go to the net and collect the garbage goals. I wonder if he’s strong enough along the boards to dig out the puck and get it to Koivu or Selanne. Defensively McMillan is sound. It’s why he earned first shot. Time will tell. I like Brandon McMillan but see him more as a top nine than a top six player.

If Kyle Palmieri continues to tear it up in the ‘A’ don’t be surprised if he gets a call up for a 4-5 game look. Can he play LW?

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